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In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season. So far in , it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned on his win in St.
In early August, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected Hollywood Casino leaderboard.
He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Harvick has finished in either first or second place at Kansas on eight occasions since , including a second-place result in two of his last four starts. He has been excellent on intermediate tracks in , picking up three top-four finishes in his last five such starts. He picked up consecutive wins at Michigan International Speedway and Richmond Raceway, giving him momentum heading into the playoffs.
SportsLine's model thinks he is undervalued as a longshot pick this weekend, especially with his prior success at this track. Be careful with Larson. He certainly has the most talent and the best parts, but his history this season on road courses is a bit shaky. It is his biggest strength, and he has 3 wins and a 6th place finish in his 4 races on road courses in the Xfinity Series this season alone.
His 18 Top 10s leads the series, and in his 21 races this season he has found victory lane 3 times. Allmendinger has more value than Larson, and he has just as much talent on road courses as the full-time Cup Series driver. He is second in playoff points, and he has the most stage wins this season. He also has 15 Top 10s and 11 Top 5s in just 21 races.