Difference between site and placerville
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- Difference between site and placerville
- Автор : Nigor
- 07.04.2021
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That should make him a big underlay if that's the case, so don't expect anything close to true odds. It's not impossible, Ken McPeek has won a Triple Crown race with a long shot before -- Sarava -- and I wouldn't fault anyone who uses him on a spread ticket and wants to be deep in the race. It's just going to take a perfectly timed ride from Corey Lanerie or a couple of main contenders to not fire and some racing luck.
In talking with most people, the answer appears to be yes. The next question is whether Messier will do what Authentic and Medina Spirit did in the past, re-breaking on the lead and wiring the field. I'm not as sure about that as he had a public workout in a horrible edition of the Robert B.
Messier beat the 4, 3 and 5 horses in his three wins -- he'll have to essentially wire 19 others here. I'm not feeling it, but then again I didn't see it with Authentic or Medina Spirit either and we saw how that ended. If you are looking for reasons to like him, I guess one could say he's 3-for-3 on a fast track and should get a stalking trip. But this is a massive step up in class, and I just can't see him factoring into anything. His off-the-pace trip might have been the result of the bad start in the Florida Derby or an educational experience for a potential run here.
He has every right to improve in his second start against winners and be a pace factor. He won his first race as an odds-on favorite at Ellis Park in a short field, but that's the only dirt win he has. His best run has been on the synthetics and turf, where he has won four of five starts. Coming off a three-month layoff, maybe he needed the race?
Or maybe he didn't like Gulfstream? But there's also reason you can forgive him for the clunker at Grants Pass Downs. And if you can do that, you're getting a horse that has some tactical speed and can finish at a monster price. He'll be on my tickets in all spots as he has a good bit of long-shot appeal. He has arguably the best jockey in the country in Flavien Prat and landed a good spot in the post draw.
The only thing to knock is Chad Brown's relative lack of success in the Kentucky Derby -- one in-the-money finish from six starters. I'm sure there will be those out there who can't stomach betting the Derby favorite -- and that is fine. There's very little, if anything, to suggest he will not run his race Saturday and at the very least post a top-three finish. He will be the cornerstone of my wagering strategy here.
Pioneer of Medina Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Joe Bravo This one has the look of a total vanity entry who is just there to run around the track. He should have been closer to the lead in both of his stakes tries, but wasn't. Now the blinkers come off for a horse that has been pretty punch-less when the real running happens. I can't imagine Pioneer of Medina was very highly thought of in the Pletcher barn from the start, being sent from Monmouth to the Calder meet at Gulfstream to Tampa.
Put Taiba in the winner's circle Saturday. Nothing against this horse, who is clearly talented, as evidenced by his two eye-popping wins to start his career. Now you must ask why he has one listed work since the Santa Anita Derby. Why did he wind up on the vet's list as "unsound"? Is he being rushed along to start here by his owner?
He's clearly the lightning rod starter here and every bit of me wants to completely toss him based on the workout issues and this being his third lifetime start. But there's also part of me that thinks it's almost too obvious to completely toss him. He will be a big overlay as a result and he may be the most talented colt with the biggest upside.
Simplification Trainer: Antonio Sano Jockey: Jose Ortiz I really want to use Simplification with confidence, but will Jose Ortiz ride him the correct way and give him the trip he had at the Fountain of Youth Stakes, or will he be sent on the lead as he was before tiring in the Florida Derby? He had a bit of a bounce coming off a career-best finish at the Fountain of Youth. He had excuses in both races against White Abarrio, so I don't think he should be double the price of that one.
Maybe he's not good enough, but at I'm happy to invest and find out. He's a dead closer and while he has clunked up for pieces at Oaklawn, I just can't see him better than fourth here for a trainer who hasn't done much in graded stakes, and he was easily beaten by Cyberknife. I like him because he's versatile and while his worst lifetime race and Beyer Speed Figure came on this track last year, he may have just developed from 2 to 3 in the care of Saffie Joseph and that race can be thrown out.
He has made up six lengths on Smile Happy, but can he beat the likes of Zandon? Maybe not, but he's another one that can win and will be on my tickets. I had him in the Arkansas Derby and I'll have him here. I'm not expecting anywhere close to though. Near-misses A losing outcome that is very close to a winning outcome Common: e. On traditional mechanical gambling machines, payout interval was determined by the maximum speed at which the physical reels could run.
Shorter payout intervals increase the potential for harm, as increased gambling speed increases the potential maximum loss in any given interval of gambling Livingstone et al. In EGMs, the payout interval is the main determinant of potential betting frequency. A more inclusive term for the related characteristic in sports betting may be number of betting opportunities.
This is because only one bet can be made at a time on EGMs, while multiple sports bets can be made simultaneously. However, the effect of payout interval and number of betting opportunities on potential betting frequency is the same. Changes within sport and innovations in sports betting products have both led to increases in potential betting frequency. First, the interval between different sporting events has decreased, in order to create a better product for TV Goldblatt, ; Sharman, Soccer matches in the UK have a traditional kickoff time of 3pm Saturday, a time that is convenient for most fans to attend in the stadium.
If all matches were played at this time, this would set a very slow betting frequency of up to an entire week for soccer bets. This change in the structure of the sport can inadvertently help increase the potential betting frequency in soccer betting. Prior to online betting, consumers would need to travel to a venue to place a bet, or have an account with a bookmaker to place a bet over the telephone.
Online betting means that consumers can place bets closer to the start of an event, or outside of venue opening hours, thereby increasing the potential betting frequency. Further, consumers can have an account with the bookmaker, where winnings are returned directly to their account so that the consumer can quickly and easily place more bets if they so wish.
This also increases the potential betting frequency compared to having to visit a venue to collect winnings. The second increase in potential betting frequency is due to an innovation in sports betting: in-play betting. For example, if the home team scores the first goal in a soccer match, the bookmaker can respond by offering shorter odds on them to win for any in-play bets, and longer odds for the away team, which has not yet scored. While in-game bets can be placed on who will ultimately win the contest, they can also be placed on in-game events, such as who will score the next goal in soccer.
However, some in-game bets can increase the potential betting frequency even more. They differ from in-play bets on in-game events, like the next goal scorer, in that the bet outcome has a definite near payout horizon, whereas the next goal may occur much later in the match. Microbets can therefore create payout intervals as short as a few seconds. This betting frequency is closer to that found on gambling machines than on traditional sports bets.
Multiplier potential Multiplier potential refers to the extent to which bets can be made on either one or a sequence of bets, with the odds becoming longer as more events are joined together in sequence Cornish, However, other EGM features can provide free spins or bonus credits, which can similarly boost the potential winnings from any given wager Livingstone et al.
Sports betting has always enabled the betting on a sequence of multiple events. Such accumulators, though, can have extremely long payout intervals, with some of the longest-odds accumulators being on various winners of season-long events. Long-odds sports bets with shorter payout intervals can be created, however, by bets combining multiple aspects of a single sporting event.
A bet can be placed on the first goalscorer and the final score of a soccer match, for example, to create a bet with multiplier potential and a relatively short payout interval. These bets have been frequently observed in studies of UK gambling advertising on TV Newall, , , with a gradual increase in odds and the number of constituent events over time Newall et al.
Such bets can even conceivably be created as microbets, for example a bet on the number of yellow cards, corners and throw-ins to occur in the next 5 min. This shows how sports bets with both short payout intervals and high multiplier potentials can be created in sports betting. Sports bets with long odds can also be created via financial inducements Newall et al. These bonus bet offers often come with complicated terms and conditions on their redemption, however, which many sports bettors misunderstand Hing et al.
Bets with long odds may not therefore always be as attractive as they first seem. Win probability and payout ratio Following Griffiths , we consider these two structural characteristics simultaneously, due to their close conceptual linkage. Win probability is the objective chance of winning any given bet, whereas the payout ratio refers to the total amount of money bet paid out as winnings.
The payout ratio is the proportion of all money bet that is paid out as prizes, and which may be easier to conceptualize as the house-edge, the proportion of all money bet kept by the bookmaker as profit. There are two ways of describing this reality of commercial gambling Parke, J. Win probability is a function of both the odds and the house-edge. If the house-edge were constant across sports bets at different odds, then a comparison of odds would be sufficient to derive the relative win probability across different bets Sauer, However, this is not the case: the house-edge tends to increase as the odds increase, as is true across different gambling forms Turner, That is, if the odds increase from 10 to across two bets, then the true probability of winning at odds of will be less than a tenth of the true probability of winning at odds of This finding has been confirmed in sports betting, both with respect to a given type of bet, and when comparing different types of bets.
So, for example in soccer, a bet on Team A to win at odds of 1. Similar results also hold when comparing a bet on a single match with accumulator bets: adding more individual events to an accumulator bet will tend to increase the house-edge Kuypers, Similar results are also expected when comparing same game multis to conventional bets in other sports.
Bettor involvement Bettor involvement refers to the potential actual or perceived control that gamblers have over their bets. There is an element of truth to this belief in sports betting, as described later.
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Racetracks calculate pari-mutuel wagering odds by collecting all bets of one type into a pool, taking a percentage off the top for the house, and using the remaining to pay winning bets. Popular horses that attract many wagers offer lower payouts because there are more winning tickets to pay. Similarly, unpopular horses offer higher payouts because there are fewer winning tickets to pay.
Pari-mutuel wagering odds are determined entirely by the public as explained in the answer to the above question. In contrast, fixed-odds wagers are determined by an oddsmaker. As a result, pari-mutuel wagers fluctuate until post-time, even after bettors place their wagers. In comparison, the payouts on fixed-odds wagers remain fixed in place after bettors submit their bets.
How do pari-mutuel wagering odds work? Racetracks post pari-mutuel wagering odds as fractions that represent the ratio of the amount the bettor stands to win versus how much they must risk. Bettors can read more about horse racing odds here: Horse Racing Odds Explained How much commission do tracks keep from pari-mutuel wagering pools?
Super7: Pick the winner from seven races. This bet ceased being offered by totepool from January Exotic wagers are usually made on horses running at the same track on the same program. In the United Kingdom , bookmakers also offer exotic wagers on horses at different tracks.
Probably the Yankee occurs most commonly: in this the bettor tries to pick the winner of four races. This bet also includes subsidiary wagers on smaller combinations of the chosen horses; for example, if only two of the four horses win, the bettor still collects for their double. A Trixie requires trying to pick three winners, and a Canadian or Super Yankee trying to pick five; these also include subsidiary bets.
There are also other bets which are large combinations of singles, doubles, trebles and accumulators some of them are called Lucky 15, Lucky 31, Heinz, Super Heinz, Goliath. The term nap identifies the best bet of the day. From 23 April to 23 May , Tote Ireland operated 4-place betting on all races with 16 or more runners. Each-way: Charged and settled as one bet to win and another bet to place for example, a punter asking for a bet of "five euro each way" will be expected to pay ten euro.
Exacta: The bettor must correctly pick the two runners which finish first and second, in the correct order replaced Forecast which allowed any order. Trifecta: The bettor must correctly pick the three runners which finish first, second, and third, in the correct order introduced on 26 May , replacing Trio which allowed any order. Multiple races Jackpot: A Pick 4 bet on races 3—6 at every meeting. Pick Six: On races 1—6 at one meeting on all Sundays and occasionally on other days introduced on 9 January Placepot: The better must correctly pick one horse to place in each of the races 2—7.
Bet types for harness racing trotting : Single race Vinnare winner : Runner must finish first. Plats place : Runner must finish within the first two places up to five runners or first three places six runners or more. Asking for a bet of "50 SEK vinnare och plats" costs SEK Tvilling twin : The bettor must pick the runners that finish first and second, but need not specify which will finish first.
Trio trio : The bettor must pick the runners that finish first, second and third in a nominated race. Multiple races Dagens Dubbel daily double and Lunchdubbel lunch double : The bettor must pick the winners of two nominated races at the same track. V3: The bettor must pick the winners of three nominated races at the same track. Unlike V4, V5, V65 and V75, where a bet for all races must be made before the start of the first race, in V3 the bettor selects the winner one race at a time.
V4: The bettor must pick the winners of four nominated races at the same track. V5: The bettor must pick the winners of five nominated races at the same track. V The bettor must pick the winners of six nominated races at the same track. Return is also given for combinations of five correctly picked winners, even if the same bet included all the six winners.
Return is also given for combinations of five or four correctly picked winners, even if the same bet included more correct picks. V The bettor must pick the winners of seven nominated races at the same track. Return is also given for combinations of six or five winners picked correctly, even if the same bet included more correct picks.
V The bettor must pick the winners of eight nominated races at the same track. Return is also given for combinations of seven or six winners picked correctly, even if the same bet included more correct picks. Place: Select correctly the 1st, 2nd or 3rd horse in a race with 7 or more declared starters, alternatively select correctly the 1st or 2nd in a race where there are 4 to 6 declared starters. Quinella: Select correctly the 1st and 2nd horses in any order in a race.
Quinella Place: Select correctly any two of the first three placed horses in any order in a race. Tierce: Select the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horses in the correct order in a race.
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Parimutuel Betting Pools Explained. Will Pays and Probable Payouts in Horse Racing.
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The less popular a horse is, the higher the potential payout because there will be fewer people splitting the pool if that horse wins. Pari-mutuel betting pools tend to be much more complicated in the real world, but the underlying theme is the same: the track collects all wagers of a specific type into a pool, takes a commission, and pays the winners with what remains.
Racetracks calculate pari-mutuel wagering odds by collecting all bets of one type into a pool, taking a percentage off the top for the house, and using the remaining to pay winning bets. Popular horses that attract many wagers offer lower payouts because there are more winning tickets to pay. Similarly, unpopular horses offer higher payouts because there are fewer winning tickets to pay. Pari-mutuel wagering odds are determined entirely by the public as explained in the answer to the above question.
In contrast, fixed-odds wagers are determined by an oddsmaker. As a result, pari-mutuel wagers fluctuate until post-time, even after bettors place their wagers. In comparison, the payouts on fixed-odds wagers remain fixed in place after bettors submit their bets. How do pari-mutuel wagering odds work?
Return is also given for combinations of five correctly picked winners, even if the same bet included all the six winners. Return is also given for combinations of five or four correctly picked winners, even if the same bet included more correct picks. V The bettor must pick the winners of seven nominated races at the same track. Return is also given for combinations of six or five winners picked correctly, even if the same bet included more correct picks.
V The bettor must pick the winners of eight nominated races at the same track. Return is also given for combinations of seven or six winners picked correctly, even if the same bet included more correct picks. Place: Select correctly the 1st, 2nd or 3rd horse in a race with 7 or more declared starters, alternatively select correctly the 1st or 2nd in a race where there are 4 to 6 declared starters.
Quinella: Select correctly the 1st and 2nd horses in any order in a race. Quinella Place: Select correctly any two of the first three placed horses in any order in a race. Tierce: Select the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horses in the correct order in a race. Trio: Select correctly the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horses in any order in a race. Quartet: Select correctly the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in correct order in a race First 4: Select correctly the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses in any order in a race.
Multiple races Double: Select correctly the 1st horse in each of the two nominated races. There is a consolation prize given under the conditions that the player has selected correctly the 1st horse in the first nominated race and the 2nd horse in the second nominated race. Treble: Select correctly the 1st horse in each of the three nominated races. There is a consolation prize given under the conditions that the player has selected correctly the 1st horse in the first two Legs and the 2nd horse in the third Leg of the three nominated races.
Double Trio: Select correctly the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horses in any order in each of the two nominated races. Triple Trio: Select correctly the 1st, 2nd and 3rd in any order in each of the three nominated races. There is a consolation prize given under the conditions that the player has selected correctly the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horses in any order in the first two Legs of the three nominated races.
Six Up: Select correctly the 1st or 2nd horse in each of the six nominated races. There is a consolation prize given under the conditions that the player has selected correctly the 1st horse in each of the six nominated races. For example, betting 1, yen to Each-way means betting yen to Win and yen to Place-Show.
Wager must be multiple of yen JRA-sanctioned horse racing. Betting on operators' website by PC or cellular phone only horse racing only. If there are 7 or less starters in the race then third place is not counted and the bettor must pick a horse that finishes either first or second. This bet type is not available on events with 3 or fewer runners. Only available on races with runners.
Trio: The bettor must correctly pick the first three finishers in any order. Trio Ordre Trifecta : The bettor must correctly pick the first, second and third finishers in their finishing order. Pick5: The bettor aims to correctly pick the first five finishers in the race irrespective of the order. PMU selects races on which this bet is available.
Only available on races with 10 or more starters. The main "Gagnant en 4" dividend is paid to winning bettors who selected four horses, with decreasing "Gagnant en 5", "Gagnant en 6" and "Gagnant en 7" dividends paid to winning bettors who selected five, six and seven horses respectively.
The "Multi" bet operates on races with 14 or more starters. The "Mini Multi" operates on races with 10 to 13 starters and only allows for a maximum of six selections with no "Gagnant en 7" dividend. Super4: The better must correctly pick the first, second, third, and fourth finishers in the correct order.