When Greg Miles said the favourite was in no danger of losing with a hundred metres to go, we looked at each other and just shrugged our shoulders. We were both thinking the favourite must lose the next race. Everyone has a hiccup. It would be boring telling the grandchildren that we won our first race while drinking Penfolds Grange in your seaside mansion.
Next race, same result. Favourite wins it easily. Third race, not trying to sound like a broken record, favourite wins again. We said to ourselves that favourites win around three out of every 10 races. For sure, the next one must lose. Within three weeks our kitty and confidence were gone. We did lay favourites that had lost. We soon realised that you have to be specific on the ones you thought were going to lose. That is the beauty with Betfair. You can do this in the comfort of your own home.
I knew we had to modify our approach. Statistics were going to be our saviour. She did it for a month and we came up with a new plan. We would only lay horses who started favourite, outside barrier 10 and were racing at metres of more.
The stats showed that the criteria only won 19 per cent of the time. Within a month we were up 33 per cent on our money. There were on average only two to three selections per week. There were selections that fitted the criteria which honestly I would have backed if I was at the track.
But our system was our system and it had to be obeyed. I think I kicked the lounge when I saw our last lay get up in the final stride. I donate money to the Red Cross before I enter a racecourse. I knew that favourites won on average 30 per cent of all races. The most common question we receive with these strategies is how to apply them when placing simultaneous bets. We define simultaneous here as when you place additional wagers before your first wager has concluded.
You can learn more about them in the Staking Plans introduction , but for now, here are the basics of how they work. Note that the discussion below applies just as well to other staking plans. Percentage Stakes This plan simply involves setting a percentage of your account balance to wager on any given selection.
Square Root Stakes This is similar to Percentage Stakes, except it incorporates more aggressive wagering once your account balance exceeds your deposit. When the account balance is equal to or below your initial deposit, you wager a set percentage of your account balance on each selection, just as you would using Percentage Stakes.
If the account balance exceeds your deposit, however, you take the square root of the difference between your balance and the deposit, and add it to the set percentage of your account balance. Both options are risky, particularly if you place a large number of wagers at one time.
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Such is the joy of exponential mathematics! Be professional and stick to your percentage. If you have a sound system, then it will only be a matter of time before things improve, and your bank starts to climb again. And of course when you do start to make progress, ratcheting benefits from the miracle of exponential mathematics when going upwards too, so that the results can be extraordinary. The man, who was very wise, asked the king this: that for the first square of the chess board, he would receive one grain of wheat, two for the second one, four on the third one, and so forth, doubling the amount each time.
However, when the treasurer took more than a week to calculate the amount of wheat, the ruler asked him for a reason for his tardiness. The treasurer then gave him the result of the calculation, and explained that it would be impossible to give the inventor the reward. This is around 1, times the global production of rice in ,, metric tons. Nowadays of course, you are more likely to find that your account is simply closed by your bookie without the need for decapitation, but it is still a problem that a sensible staking plan can easily leave you with… so do look at my article on eight ways to stop your bookie from closing you down.
Never chase losses. It really is the fastest way to the poor house. Why do so many people do it? Hence the popularity of systems like Fancy Fillies, which has a cute name, but is little more than a well-packaged, loss-chasing plan.
Variable Stakes With this plan you place different sized stakes depending on what odds you are betting at. It is often used when you are working with a smaller sized bank. Whereas with level stakes you would normally have a 50 point bank, with Variable Stakes you can work with a 25 point bank, as your stakes are reduced.
Obviously, the longer the odds, the longer the potential losing runs and so by cutting down your stake, it helps protect your bank. In effect what you are doing is fixing your profit on each bet, to the limit of your maximum stake. Percentage Bank This plan can be used when you are confident of the strike rate of the system you are using.
As your bank increases or decreases, then you adjust the level of your stake to a percentage of your current bank. The first thing you need to decide is what percentage of the bank you are willing to stake. After every bet you need to re-calculate your new stake for the next selection. There are options with this plan. All these are viable options as far as the odds we are betting at in the football arena.
Square Root This is a plan where you can increase your stake, if the bank has gone up, by a square root proportion of the bank increase. Sounds complicated but it really is not. Told you it was simple. So there you have 4 Staking Plans that can be used with football betting. Level Stakes and Variable Stakes are the solid, conservative methods which will keep your bank safe but will not encourage rapid bank growth.